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2050 Pathways: The Numbers of a Green Economy

Written on April 30, 2013 in Science & Environment

This past week I was fortunate enough to see a presentation given by David MacKay, Chief Scientific Advisor at the Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC). Author of the acclaimed book Sustainable Energy – without the hot air (available for free online), Prof MacKay is a font of knowledge and scientific rigour when it comes to the hard questions of climate change and the options available at personal, collective and government policy levels.

Running through some of the numbers is always an eye-opening exercise, and there are plenty to mull over in the text of his book. There were some rather humbling views for the more environmentally aware on just what it would take to power a country such as the UK with biofuels or solar panels using current technology (answer: an amount of physical space the size of small countries, not to mention the cost and infrastructure requirements), as well as a call for politicians and the media to operate off a numbers basis rather than a rhetorical one. The real purpose of the lecture, however, was to present a rather fantastic tool which has been developed by DECC to help people visualise and contemplate different possibilities to meet carbon reduction quotas by 2050.

The 2050 Pathways calculator is an impressive piece of open-source kit, allowing you to prioritise different avenues for both energy consumption and supply in an attempt to meet current emission reduction targets – “showing the benefits, costs and trade-offs of different versions of the future“. There’s an impressive amount of data underlying the tool, and thankfully plenty of explanatory links for every item included. As an educational tool on climate change and energy policy it is truly excellent – the number of conversations you could build off of the backs of choices made is practically countless. Unfortunately it does lead to a rather morose realisation that so much needs to be achieved, developed and implemented to even get close to the emissions quotas that you find yourself wondering just how possible it is at all…

Climate change will almost certainly be a devastating component of the 21st century, and the various possible energy crises will lead to additional conflict and destruction on top of that. The situation looks very grim, and that leads to the kind of collective buck-passing and thumb-twaddling that only exacerbates the problem. However, the calculator at least provides us with some data-driven responses that should focus our individual thinking and also educate us in the broader policy decisions in order to encourage us to participate and enter this important societal conversation.

Numbers-driven approaches allow us to circumvent some of the passionate, albeit often useless, rhetoric in order to replace it with more effective means of combating the problem. Prof MacKay gave the somewhat humorous example of a recent government poster campaign that encouraged everybody to make sure their phone chargers, and other such appliances, were switched off at the wall when not in use. This makes for a great poster design, and very easy feel-good wins for us all as we switch off those power points. In the end, the difference per day was about the equivalent of 1 second of driving a car…underwhelming to say the least.

We’re better off encouraging people to walk or ride to the shops rather than drive or, as Prof MacKay gave as an example, decrease the temperatures of our homes by a relatively small amount. When you use the calculator and see the impact that an overall decrease in average home temperatures has over and above almost any other option – it makes it incredibly easy to put on that jumper and turn down the thermostat.

The calculator also makes you think more carefully about blanket statements such as ‘we should just put solar panels on every roof’ or ‘nuclear energy will solve all our problems!’. By providing you with the resources to see the true impact of each approach, both in terms of carbon reduction but also cost, space and innovation requirements, the discussion immediately becomes more nuanced and the weight of decisions immediately more visceral.

There’s a great example here of the importance of data-visualisation, and I’ve discussed before how important such an approach will be over the coming decades. Our capacity to collect, share and analyse data is growing exponentially; but it is very difficult for people to engage with findings unless they are accessible and help clarify things like scale (millions, billions, trillions…there’s really quite a big difference!) and display things in relation to one another.

The kinds of interactive, dynamic data-visualisation represented by the 2050 Pathways calculator should be applauded for bringing us into contact with the very difficult policy decisions that must be made over the coming decade and beyond in such an accessible and impacting manner.

Conversations change society, and by enabling people to enter into conversations on climate change with insight and a solid foundation of the options available is certainly a vital aspect of the overall path to overcoming and/or dealing with climate change that we are going to have to walk together. Have a play around with the 2050 Pathways calculator and share it with your friends, see what plans they come up with and the discussions that emerge as you try and balance one set of sacrifices over another; with the entire process occurring upon the backdrop of a possibly cataclysmic shift in how we relate to the ecosystem that we rely so very much upon.

If you discover some magic balance of solutions let us know by commenting below! What areas did the calculator make you consider more deeply then before?

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9 Futurist Predictions for 2013

Written on January 30, 2013 in Communications & Technology, Lifestyle & Society, Science & Environment

Atomic Future (image from comicstarmoon, Flickr, CC) You thought I’d forget about you in January, didn’t you? We’re certainly cutting it fine, but since the new year must bring some new predictions here are nine areas that I think will see important milestones or changes in public sentiment in 2013:

1) Digital Distribution marches ahead

Let’s begin with an obvious trend that is all but inevitable, and one that has clearly been gaining steam over the last few years. We now have the infrastructure (high speed broadband, mobile reading devices, content and distribution capacity) meeting public demand for convenience and instant access to confidently say that 2013 will be a tipping point for digital distribution.

High-street institutions such as HMV and Blockbuster slide into administration, whilst services such as Netflix, Lovefilm, Steam and Spotify offer enough content – particularly in the US market – to keep you entertained for a very long time. Negotiation of licensing is a hurdle, and many markets need further expansion of their catalogues to be viable, but digital distribution will prove to be king this year. This will also mean we hear a lot more about possible flaws of these business models (Spotify is often targeted, although perhaps not justifiably), and in the case of digital gaming there will be more debate about ownership and loss of service (if a service goes down do all of our purchases become worthless?). In the end we’re not going to have much of a choice but bow down to our new digital overlords.

2) Internet Freedom backlash

If the last few years have been about government and corporate intrusion on our lives and activities, this year will see a backlash that will draw a new line in the battle for internet freedom. Lines are being drawn between corporations and government (such as news of Google, Yahoo and others requiring search warrants), whilst there is also backlash occurring at a national level surrounding jurisdictional issues (i.e. MegaUpload case in New Zealand). We even have the French government preparing legislation that will allow a new form of taxation on the digital economy. Battle lines are being drawn.

Outside of this legal battle is the growth in services that market themselves on a privacy platform – whether it be Kim Dotcom’s new and improved encrypted Mega, or the continued rise of VPN services, a consumer-driven approach to internet privacy and freedom will see large gains in 2013.

3) The bigger they are, the harder they fall…

There are a number of tech-focused companies that seem untouchable at this point (Apple, Google, Facebook etc.), which is almost always an indicator that they are going to over-extend or make a drastic misstep and face the consequences. Apple is rapidly losing its dominance, and only a few days ago lost its coveted crown at the top of the corporate heap, and expect that to continue and gain steam this year as a business built on consumer loyalty begins to see that zealous fan base erode. Facebook hits its market saturation point, and fatigue will set in leading to lower levels of usage and dropping user numbers in a few geographic areas. Whilst Google plays both sides of the privacy debate and faces greater scrutiny into its total dominance of our online lives, with an increasing cynicism towards the famous motto ‘Don’t be Evil’ brought about by high-profile privacy breaches and consumer tracking practices.

Which one will see a big hit this year? Likely all of them…but if I had to put money on it, I’d say that Apple is set up for a big drop in influence by diluting its product line with an increasing number of iterative releases at high-end prices, whilst losing a great deal of consumer loyalty in the process as people shift over to the likes of Samsung as Android continues to destroy the competition.

4) Augmented reality begins now

I can’t seem to stop mentioning Google here, but Google Glass will lead the way for augmented reality as a topic that the average person will understand and begin to see the utility of. No longer a novelty item on our smartphones or handheld consoles, attempts will be made to position this as a lifestyle enhancer as the function is included in an increasing number of applications and products.

Unlike the 3D-television fad, the fashion aspect of this new market will be properly taken into account and designs will reflect the desire for non-intrusive products that will prove successful from the outset. Your augmented reality begins this year, and it only gets deeper from here on out!

5) Social media landscape consolidates

The last five years has seen a boom in social media companies and attempts to create the ‘next big thing’ following the sustained success of Facebook and Twitter. Almost all of which have only seen moderate success (relatively speaking) before retreating somewhat (FourSquare seems like a big name that might fall away this year) or being bought out by a larger company (Facebook snapping up Instagram). Expect more high-profile purchases this year of every new innovation that even begins to take hold as the larger companies with deep pockets try to maintain market share.

What we are seeing are the beginnings of the next wave of social media, which is the integrated platform. Google is leading the way in trying to implement an all-in-one package (although Microsoft might not be too far behind them…), and Facebook is now making moves into search functionality with Graph Search. Whether or not this integrated approach will prove successful in the long run is hard to predict because we’re notoriously fickle with such platforms. But we’ve got a number of brands with embedded user-bases that are certainly going to try their best.

Ultimately the opposite needs to occur, movement towards decentralised systems which allow far greater controls over data ownership, but the current trend will continue to be towards the mega-corporate model of conglomeration and continued focus on data mining revenue capacity. Definitely cause for concern, but can we fight the impulsive nature and vote with our (virtual) feet?

6) Crowd-funding will be tested by failure

2011-2012 was the launch of the crowd-funding era, with the likes of Kickstarter and Indiegogo leading the charge. Anybody with a good idea and some marketing nous could get large amounts of funding to complete projects that only a few years ago would never have been green-lighted. All indications are that this will continue to gain steam and become even more important, bringing with it a greater degree of product innovation and experimentation. What we haven’t seen yet, however, is a serious test of the model through failure of a massive project because of lofty visioning, misconduct, or even outright fraudulent behaviour.

We’re starting to see very large scale projects, breaking the $10 million dollar mark, which bring with them a higher chance of damaging consumer confidence should they fail. Once these stories eventuate (and they have been already) and hit the mainstream news the general public will latch onto this negative sentiment – it’s likely only going to be a blip in consumer confidence, but I think it’s going to hit this year with something big. Let’s see what happens…and hope that I’m wrong.

7) Ethics of technology becomes more prominent

We’ve seen the breakdown of trust and confidence in many sectors recently, from finance to politics to media institutions. The focus on defining ethical boundaries will extend into the technology and medical sphere this year, with more discussion on augmented cognition and human enhancement; synthetic food production (such as 3D meat printing); implications of data security and cases of social profiling; and more focus on the impact of technological innovation on global work standards (Foxconn being a prominent example) and resource usage.

This sense of ethical questioning will coincide with a large degree of positive optimism surrounding medical advancements. A large number of advancements will see successful implementation over the coming year, consider the wave of successful limb transplants we have seen recently, and these will be more highly reported then the ethical issues in other areas leading to an overall positive approach to technological advancement but with an ethical edge. The way it should be!

8) Videogames recognised as literature and art

I’m amazed that even in 2012 we still see attempts by the gliteratti to defend their hallowed halls of culture from the rise of the videogame medium. This notion that videogames are mere trivial pieces of entertainment without literary or artistic merit will be decimated in the public perception.

Games such as The Walking Dead and Journey from 2012 have proven that these interactive experiences are allowing deep levels of emotional engagement, and the industry wide praise of these games will not only mean that more mechanics-light, experience-deep games will go into production; but also that they will see larger audiences and the subsequent awareness that the medium contains infinite creative potential to explore some deeply impacting issues will become more commonplace.

9) 21st Century Space Race

Whilst government funding for NASA decreases, we’re seeing this replaced by private sector interest in space tourism and industry. This will culminate in 2013 with a number of high profile projects. From Virgin Galactic’s first flight, to SpaceX continuing the fill the gap that NASA leaves behind, to the Lynx/Axe Space Academy vying for our marketing attention and promoting visions of personal space flight made available to all.

These commercial ventures will be joined by accelerated moves from a number of countries that seek to enter the exclusive club of nations with developed and effective space programmes. India is set to launch a Mars mission at the end of the year; Iran just succeeded in putting a monkey in space; Russian space budget continues to increase; whilst China’s five year plan continues, with a robotic lunar lander scheduled for later this year. Amongst all of this, what happens if the little Wall-E like Curiosity Rover finds evidence of ‘Life on Mars’…?

There you have it, what do you think about these predictions? Which ones do you think will come true this year, which ones will take longer, and which ones are just plain wrong? Make sure to add some of your own by commenting below!

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[Review] Superhuman: Exploring Human Enhancement at the Wellcome Collection

Written on September 22, 2012 in Lifestyle & Society, Reviews, Science & Environment

I always look forward to Wellcome Collection exhibitions. Not only for their inherent quirkiness and lateral-thinking curation, but because they make for great Future Conscience posts! Okay, so there’s a selfish motivation in there; but really it’s more of an appreciation for the collection and the way the team promotes its breadth and highlights some fascinating aspects of the relationship between humanity and science throughout the ages. The latest exhibition Superhuman: Exploring Human Enhancement from 600 BCE to 2050 is another great offering.

Superhuman - Exhibition Photo The first thing I noticed when compared to the previous exhibition Brains: The Mind as Matter was that the layout of the space was much more open and free flowing. There is far less emphasis on glass cabinets, as the exhibition moves away from the fetishisation of objects and creates a contemplative space of imagery and ideas with substantial amounts of film and artistic work.

The interpretation of the topic hinges upon a few dominant themes: broadening the definition of enhancement, including a too-brief look through history; our changing attitudes towards disability; the integration of man and machine; and the world of sport and human athletic endeavour (including the eye-catching colour of vintage superhero comics). Capping these sections off is an open space with a future timeline to 2050 prominently displayed, and a collection of ‘talking head’ experts that explore some of the more detailed areas of philosophical and ethical grappling with the transhumanist themes that are understated but run through the whole exhibition.

Let’s get the obvious part out of the way. As a free exhibition I can do nothing but recommend that you go and see it, and I have the highest praise for the continued efforts of the exhibitions team at the Wellcome Collection. They’ve created another fantastic space right in the heart of London that challenges our perceptions of self and identity and does so in an accessible way. If you’re reading this and are located in London then you should definitely make the time to drop by – it will take an hour out of your day and will plant enough seeds of thought to last you many evenings of conversation and debate (indeed, for some of us, they become a life-long obsession).

Some of the themes that I found most impacting, coming from the position of having already grappled with the futurist themes of transhumanism, are to be found in the first half of the exhibition. To begin with, the broadening of the theme back into the past breaks the commonly held notion that issues of human enhancement are merely an issue for the future. I’d never considered before that high-heels are an example of this train of thought, but of course they are even by the very name they go by. Likewise a substance such as Viagra, enhancing our sexual drive and ability and extending vibrant sexuality until well into old age.

Superhuman - child prosthetics The sections on disability were impacting and empathetic, with a whole section on the damage caused by widespread use of thalidomide during a four year period between 1958-1962 and the subsequent birth defects that followed. The showing of Matthew Barney’s surrealist film Cremaster 3: The Third Degree filled with esoteric imagery and overt references to Masonic symbolism I found of personal interest, and they were linked to the exhibition by the inclusion of Paralympian and double amputee Aimee Mullins in the film. It was a quote from a 2009 TED talk of hers that opened up a new way of thinking about human augmentation and disability that I hadn’t previously considered:

“The conversation with society has changed profoundly in this last decade. It is no longer a conversation about overcoming deficiency. It’s a conversation about augmentation; it’s a conversation about potential. A prosthetic limb does not represent the need to replace loss anymore. It can stand as a symbol that the wearer has the power to create whatever it is that they want to create in that space, so that people society once considered to be disabled can now become the architects of their own identities…”

When juxtaposed against the films and images of the impact of thalidomide and the resulting effort to produce prosthetics to overcome the birth deficiencies of having no arms or limbs, or the artistic short displaying victims of landmines chasing flying prosthetic legs, suddenly we can see that shift in perception displayed for us in a direct way. We are moving into that period where augmentation is not only about restoring what was lost, but equally or even more so about discovering what is possible. This is the core theme of the exhibition and its scope, and it’s a powerful one.

With this strongest point in mind, where the exhibition falls short surprisingly enough is the question of transhumanism and its impact on our sense of identity. There are pithy lines in some of the interpretation panels that ask questions such as: will we retain our essential humanity if the border between man and machine is completely removed? But they are left hanging, the anxiety is pointed out in passing without leading the viewer into an emotional encounter with what that question really means.

Granted, it’s not an easy thing to do, and the attempt to cover the more weighty issues with the darkened area of talking heads discussing deeper philosophical concepts falls short mainly because it lacks a certain sense of gravity and enthusiasm around the subject. This question is big, it’s not one that can be dealt with easily but it is one that can be opened up creatively and through the kinds of artistic pieces that run throughout the exhibition the viewer could have been left with a much more impacting idea of how central these questions are to our foreseeable future.

Superhuman - Exhibition Photo (2) Instead they are relegated to a dark corner, one in which the words of those speaking can’t be heard clearly enough and for most visitors are likely not part of their experience of the exhibition at all. Thankfully the very well produced programme gives their positions in full, and for just £1 you can’t possibly ask for a better piece of the exhibition to take away with you.

But there’s still a sense throughout that something is lacking, that the gravitas of the subject is not truly grappled with but rather only lightly approached – perhaps because to envisage it or articulate it in the language of an exhibition of this size proves very difficult to do. Of course, this might also have to do with the scope of the collection itself and you have to work with what you’ve got.

If you get a chance to visit this exhibition in a group I would recommend you do so, the timeline wall – with its various predictions up to 2050 (why do we always stop there…is it because most alive today won’t live past that period?) – is situated in a large open space. One that just begs for a vibrant group discussion about the various markers of future progress that it predicts. The extensive use of artistic thinking and even a large installation piece (I’ll leave you to discover that one, but it’s turned on for an hour a day at 1230 – surprisingly mesmerising) promotes a kind of free-flowing experience that you don’t get in exhibitions that rely more on objects as curiosity items and begs for detailed discussion to go along with it.

This is an exhibition that will make you think and will push the boundaries of how you consider the time period we currently exist in. I just wish that more was done to lead people to a true encounter with the awe-inspiring shift in human identity that we may not necessarily see in our lifetimes, but is almost certainly just around the corner.

Like my previous review, I have to put in here a meek apology for my clandestine photography of the exhibition. I hope that those from the Wellcome Collection will appreciate that I do so to highlight the fantastic work that you do with each exhibition you put on. Thank you and keep up the great work!

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The Best of Future Conscience 2009 – 2012

Written on August 27, 2012 in Communications & Technology, Lifestyle & Society, Religion & Spirituality, Science & Environment

Augmented Reality concept (image by Electric Images, Flickr, CC)

It’s quite strange to think that Future Conscience has now been running for three years. Over 150,000 words through almost 200 posts, there’s a lot here that visitors to the site just won’t come across unless it happens to be through a specific search term. To recognise three years of writing the blog I thought I would highlight some of my favourite posts, the ones that I would hope everybody who visits would read (and share!) and that highlight the tone and purpose of the blog the best.

I’ve left out some of the most recent ones, which are easily found, and also those in the most popular posts list to the right (that Top 10 Futurist Films post has seen so many views I can’t see anything toppling it). Some posts that I’d like to include here I haven’t to keep the length manageable, so there’s still some hidden gems for you to find if you hunt through the archives (or the random links that pop up on the sidebar).

If there’s only one post that you share with your friends and followers – please do make it this one. Celebrate our third anniversary and help spread the word with these: the best of Future Conscience 2009 – 2012!

Society 3.0 – Where all of us have a voice (2009)

One of the first posts on the blog. The early posts show a far less nuanced writing style, and I think also are a bit too full of naivety. But with this one I think the groundwork was laid for what the blog was to become. Starting originally as a daily blog highlighting futurist news with an ethical slant, it was here that I started to show the social commentary and personal philosophy that would become the norm. For that reason alone it’s an important one to have on this list…even if I cringe every time I read posts from around this time.

Augmented Reality: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (2009/10)

I like this series of posts because it takes a look at one particular technology – augmented reality – and approaches it from multiple angles. All technology can be used in both positive and negative ways, and you should really do a post like this for every futurist projection. It’s also a post that I neglected to conclude for quite some time, so the final part shows quite a different writing style to the earlier two.

Ethical Blogging Series (2009)

One of the early topics covered was this ongoing series of posts on ethical blogging. What does it mean, how can you do it, why would you want to? Blogging is one of those mediums where people don’t really consider much how to respect intellectual property, their readership and the ethics of monetisation, and the role that a good ethical foundation can play not only in the topics that you write about but in the practical structure of the blog and how it’s put together.

Tweetivism: Social Justice or Internet Lynch Mob? (2009)

Continuing with the themes of social commentary and longer posts, I’m quite proud of this post because it highlights an issue which has become increasingly important in the years following. It’s nice to feel somewhat ahead of the curve, and it wasn’t until a year or so later that editorials started cropping up regularly in the mainstream media on this very topic. By the way – how ugly are Google Ads? Bleh…glad I stopped using those.

[Review] Radio Free Albemuth: Into the Mind of Philip K Dick (2010)

Radio Free Albemuth: Interview with Writer/Director John Alan Simon (2012)

If I had to choose a favourite post, most of the time I’m going to choose my initial review of Radio Free Albemuth. Primarily because of the absolutely surreal experience that I had on the day (given in full detail in the post), but also because it opened up a dialogue with the film’s director and producer which a year later meant that I was able to meet them in person to discuss the movie and also score an interview for the blog. Being such a huge fan of Philip K Dick, I felt priviliged and honoured to be part of the roll-out of this film in whatever small way. Here’s hoping it gets a wider release very soon!

The Rabbi & The Golem: A Parable of Synthetic Life (2010)

Musings Along the Way: 40 Spiritual Aphorisms (2010)

Why We Should Not Worship God (2011)

The parable is the only piece of fiction on the blog, I really enjoyed writing it and I do feel it’s important for people to know that the blog comes from a place of personal contemplation and spiritual growth. The aphorisms were my attempt at conveying information in a symbolic manner, and the style is one that is being seen less and less these days. They give a direct view into the core of my psyche at the time of writing, which makes them the most personal post by far and is also why I present them without comment. The final piece of this spiritual trilogy is a misunderstood one, and one of those that were I to edit now I would change quite a bit to make a few things more clear, but for the record is a deeply theistic piece. These three represent the cornerstone of the blog and its ethos.

The Shifting Paradigms of Alternate Reality Gaming (2010)

Another one of my favourite posts, mainly because of the paranoid noir-like world that it portrays. Alternate reality gaming is something that seemed poised to take off in a big way, and although to a certain extent it has simmered down recently I still think it’s an entertainment medium that has a lot to offer in merging gaming, social activity and the ‘real’ world into a wonderful cocktail that enables personal enjoyment, inspiration and growth. But there were aspects of the scene that were showing some very worrying tendencies, and the ability for this medium to be abused for violent or manipulative ends should not be overlooked.

10 Sectors to Watch for the Next Decade (2009)

7 Random Predictions for the Future (2010)

5 Predictions for the Next 5 Years (2012)

Timeline: The Future of Videogames (2012)

Futurists are supposed to make predictions, it’s part of the genre and it forces us to put our necks on the line. Here are some prediction posts I’ve made over the last three years. In many ways I think I’m not a terribly imaginative futurist, but these attempts at least show that I’m willing to try! At the very least, if you make enough predictions then some of them are going to be right…

Your Life: The Videogame (2011)

Not everything on Future Conscience has to be so serious and sombre, and so I’m picking this post to highlight one of the more light-hearted explorations of future technology. The gamification of life is a prediction that I stand by strongly, and is also one that I’m quite looking forward to. We’ve only just begun to develop ways to incorporate our technology, our sense of entertainment and our daily lives; and it’s a sector that is going to see rapid growth over the next decade with some completely unexpected results.

Millionize Your Lashes: The Impossible Dream of Cosmetics (2011)

Possibly the post that comes closest to being a pure rant, but this is another one that I’m very pleased with and also feel a certain degree of pride over. The disingenuous world of advertising is an issue that really upsets my sense of autonomy, as it is founded on a notion of manipulation, manufacture of desire and an underlying message that chips away at self-confidence. I’m proud of this post not because of its content, per se, but because it comes up so highly when searching for the product mentioned.

It still makes me chuckle to think that at some point there was likely a marketing meeting at one of the world’s largest cosmetics companies (L’Oreal) with people getting pissed off that this post was ranking so highly on Google searches for their latest product. Don’t fuck with the blogosphere, you agents of the corporatocracy. We bite.

Hack the Planet! Lulzsec, Anonymous and the Call for Accountability (2011)

Anonymous There’s something about the world of hackers, cyberpunks and online activists that is so intriguing that it has always been a topic of great interest to me. Of course the reality rarely matches the myth, but I thought it was important to try and clear up some misconceptions that were going around in the press at the time whilst also highlighting why people of this persuasion – whether you agree with their methods or not – have a very important role to play in the 21st century.

This post doesn’t even cover half the story, as time progressed we learned of hidden arrests and FBI sting operations that only served to make this techno-thriller that much more compelling.

London/UK Riots: Are We Limiting Our Understanding of Violence? (2011)

2011 was when I really began to hit my writing stride, and my response to the London riots written on the day they had concluded is one of my favourite pieces of work. I was shocked to see how quickly many of my previously liberal friends and peers were to call for martial law, swift punishment and harsh sentencing – and so this was my attempt to highlight why we must try and see beyond the surface and rise above our primal response mechanisms. We need to learn how to read the language of our cities and societies more effectively, particularly when they are screaming at us.

Beyond Cute Robots: Towards a New Concept of Sentience (2011)

iCub - Future Conscience Part of what I love about writing the blog is that it encourages me to get out there and go to exhibitions or other events that are relevant and interesting. This post sees me playing around with ideas surrounding the anthropomorphic nature of our view of sentience, and I enjoy it because of its philosophical depth. Like many of the posts on the site, it’s basically a stream-of-consciousness piece…which means that it trades off a certain degree of structure and academic riguour in an attempt to access those areas of our minds that rest just on the edge of what we can grasp hold of.

We are the 99%! You are the Revolution! (2011)

The Social Psychology of Occupy (2012)

These two posts bookend my experiences with the Occupy London movement, and in many ways show a transition from pure idealism to the pragmatics of social transformation. The first is a call to action, the second a sincere attempt to examine why the movement all but fell apart. Broad-based resistance to dominant and damaging social (and, particularly, commercial and economic) paradigms is important, and I hope to see it continue in other forms that can learn from the drawbacks of the Occupy movement and how it operated in practice. As an aside: if there’s one thing that I will take away from experiences with Occupy, it’s that there is no such thing as a large-scale horizontal movement. No matter how many times you say otherwise. At least, not yet…

So there you have it…some of the best posts that this blog has to offer. I hope you’ve enjoyed seeing how the blog has developed over the years (some of my earlier writing is so cringe!) and I look forward to writing more for you as we continue to look towards the future and ask ourselves the question: What do we want to be?

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Buzz Aldrin, Curiosity on Mars, and the Privatisation of Space

Written on August 2, 2012 in Communications & Technology, Science & Environment

It’s not every day that you get to sit in front of someone who has walked on the surface of the Moon. Today I was given just such an opportunity, a conversation with Buzz Aldrin which took place at the newly refurbished House of St Barnabas – which for the Olympics madness has been knighted as Omega House, a private hospitality venue in the centre of London named after the illustrious watch-making company and official timekeepers of the London 2012 Olympics.

The venue could barely withstand the level of interest in seeing such a legendary figure speak, and the mixed group of media and guests were separated into two rooms. First to listen to a presentation by Buzz Aldrin on his experiences with the Apollo Programme and then a multi-room Q&A that covered everything from the need for a renewed focus on Mars (a manned mission which he predicts will occur by 2040) to a question one would guess came from an Omega spokesperson as to why Buzz chose to wear one of their watches when he first stepped onto the lunar surface. For the record, Buzz gave a masterful stroke of non-marketing by saying that there was ‘nothing more useless when you’re on the surface of the Moon then knowing the time in Houston, Texas.‘ You’ve got to respect an answer like that.

Beyond the truly inspiring rhetoric, and the desire to see renewed focus on the exploration of space and its eventual colonisation, there were interesting undertones of patriotism that displayed Buzz Aldrin’s well-known Republican leanings. It sounded slightly anachronistic when we consider projects such as the Large Hadron Collider and the collective efforts that brought it such success to hear this impressive man speak of national competitiveness. Not to mention a kind of dissonance when he says quite passionately that ‘we as a Nation need to…‘ – clearly the people he was addressing, given our location and international context, were not the ‘Nation’ he was talking of. To be fair, he did close one of the final questions by saying that we ‘need to be competitive on the small things, and work together on the big.‘ To be even more fair, he walked on the frickin’ MOON.

Unfortunately, I wasn’t one of those selected to put forward a question so I thought it would be worth asking here and exploring some of the reasons why I would have been interested to hear his answer. Quite simply, I wanted to ask: Do you think we should allow the privatisation of space? In a session that was filled with both talk of national accomplishments and inspiring collective human endeavours, there was little mention of the commercialisation of space exploration and the consequences of allowing a privatisation of this new frontier. When we consider the recent SpaceX mission, which was the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station, it’s becoming increasingly likely that any successful mission to Mars – particularly one that has a persistent presence – could well be a privately funded enterprise.

NASA Curiosity Mars rover With the NASA Curiosity rover scheduled to touch down in just three days, it brings up interesting questions about the relationship between publicly and privately funded space research and the motivations driving missions in the future. Is it a case where the bulk of the research and development will be publicly funded, and then those with deep pockets are best positioned to use this research for sustainable programmes that have profit margins in mind?

NASA’s commercial crew programme is set to pump over half a billion dollars worth of state spending into developing privately operated enterprises – with the justification being that it will reduce future budgetary demands. The socialisation of cost and the privatisation of profit is a theme that seems to be occurring frequently in our ‘free market’ society recently, and it is one that in the US at least looks to be replicated in the space sector.

In the short term, it might seem that this commercialised approach is not only inevitable (given the rights of companies and individuals to produce technology capable of such feats) but also desirable. There are many advantages that private spaceflight can bring to the table, and a competitive market will drive down production costs, increase research and development capabilities, and probably mean that we achieve milestones much quicker than if we were to wait for underfunded government programmes (particularly at a time of global recession).

In the longer view, some pivotal questions are raised which need to be openly tackled. Who can claim ownership of land or resources on other planets or moons? Will the private market create an access problem in which only the richest members of our global society are able to participate? Will the sense of cosmic wonder and collective ingenuity be replaced with a corporate battleground of patents, lawsuits and profit margins? Perhaps the most important question…is it just going to be first come (or go as the case may be), first served?

SpaceX Dragon docking at ISS How we treat the extension of humanity beyond planet Earth will dictate the very philosophical foundations that we build our future social identity around. Yes, it might be true in the current socio-economic context that many of the things we dream of cannot be achieved without privatisation of one kind or another – but at what cost, then, will our dreams be fulfilled?

If we privatise the exploration and colonisation of our solar system can we truly say it was done out of a sense of uplifting and evolving humanity towards a more unified, collective vision of what it means to create and exist? Or will our vision be determined by those who had the means to get their first, solidifying further their place at the top of the global hierarchy.

Many of these questions are covered by various articles of the Outer Space Treaty – currently ratified by 100 countries, with more to come. This treaty provides a promising basis for our future explorations, including the concept that bodies such as the Moon or planets such as Mars should be considered the ‘common heritage of mankind’ and therefore protected from some of the worst case scenarios we might imagine. Such a treaty is a good foundation to start from, but we’re already seeing that there is quite a bit of leeway in how it can be interpreted.

Consider plans to create for-profit asteroid mining companies, lauding their ability to ‘add trillions of dollars to the global GDP’ (or the balance sheet of the corporations who achieve such feats). A cursory reading of the Outer Space Treaty would lead you to believe that such an enterprise would fall under ‘appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means’. But apparently this is not the case…Treaties are only as good as the level to which they are enforced and the degree to which they are unambiguous. Also, the OST is designed to specifically deal with matters of national sovereignty and doesn’t really concern itself with private business matters. There’s a clause on page 40 which states that ‘the activities of non-government entities in outer space shall require authorization and continuing supervision by the State concerned‘. Ambiguous, at best.

Which is not to mention the fact that the Outer Space Treaty does not deal with important links in the chain of interstellar exploration. NASA is seeing itself move towards a model where commercial space flights are key – whilst countries such as Russia and China are keeping their programmes tightly under state control. Whether or not a single national or corporate body can claim sovereignty over particular areas of space is less relevant then their ability to monopolise the means of access. Sovereignty is less of an issue when you’re the only one capable of extracting those minerals from asteroids, and you control the patents and means for others to do the same.

It’s kind of a difficult concept how one can sell interstellar resources for private profit when they are considered to be the ‘common heritage of mankind’. When they get back to Earth will the payloads of these missions be distributed evenly amongst all parties who wish to profit from them? If that were to be the case, who would bear the brunt of the financial risk and costs – and must they be compensated with significant rates of return? If we don’t allow sovereignty and we feel that privatisation is undesirable does that mean that we need to forego space exploration altogether?

In order to achieve some of the outcomes that many are hoping to see in their lifetimes it is inevitable that we will see an increasing move towards privatised models of space exploration and commercialisation. The ‘Space Rush’ period will see the demise of many well-funded companies as the risks for involvement are so high, but the possible rewards are also astronomical in value (sorry…couldn’t let that one pass). It strikes me that we need to consider our approach to this transitional period of human history far more carefully then we are currently doing, particularly in the sense of our general public engagement with the questions at hand. By relying on national interests and government processes we also rely on traditional lobbying streams, and it’s quite clear who will win out if those forces are left to their own devices.

Buzz Aldrin visor reflection Our exploration of the solar system and beyond should be seen as the best chance we have at overcoming our biological nature for territorialism, hostility and competition; replacing it instead with a mode of action that builds upon our capacity for empathy, compassion and collective wellbeing. Commercial enterprise will definitely play an important role in getting us to the point where we can spread our wings as a species and expand into a new destiny. We just need to ask ourselves what that destiny might look like, who will form it, and who will be the primary beneficiaries.

Heading off to the stars is not merely a matter of spectacle to be read or watched from a distance, it is quite literally a new dawning for humanity. Is that really something we’d be willing to sell to the highest bidder?

I realise I’ve thrown a lot of questions out there with this post, a lot of what ifs and how abouts without too many answers following. This is partly because it’s an area that I haven’t done much detailed research into, and I’m using this post as a springboard into the topic. I’d very much like to hear your thoughts on these questions, so please do leave a comment below.

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Top 10 Futurist Websites

Written on July 15, 2012 in Communications & Technology, Lifestyle & Society, Religion & Spirituality, Science & Environment

Future Retro (image by Radar Communication, Flickr, CC)

That’s right, it’s another top 10 list. To be fair, we all love them (you know you do…) and they always prove to be popular. Given that Future Conscience exists slightly outside of the usual futurist circles, I thought that the readers here would appreciate a list of the sites that I often rely on when looking for inspiration about the future trajectory of humanity.

These sites represent my favourites at the time of posting – subject to change, requiring additions…enjoy!

10. Southern Poverty Law Center – Intelligence Report

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) is a ‘non-profit civil rights organization dedicated to fighting hate and bigotry’ and I have long been visiting their site not only because of the great work they do but also because of the publication they produce called the Intelligence Report. This is a quarterly magazine which is reproduced online that monitors trends in extremism in the U.S and is incredibly well researched and written. I have a keen interest in groups that foster extreme ideology of any kind, and it is undeniable that in an era of rapid change and social turmoil we must ensure diligence against any group or organisation that promotes an ideology of hatred and destruction.

9. io9

This site is well known to those that tend towards the geekier side of life (i.e. awesome people). Primarily covering science fiction and comic-related news, the site also has a strong focus on interesting technology and futurist thought. Basically, from a love of science fiction comes a love of futurist news and its presented in a very accessible and entertaining way. Bite-sized but with depth, accessible without being asinine, io9 is a great site for anybody with an interest in the future to have as your homepage.

8. Antiwar.com

At first you might wonder whether this site could really be called ‘futurist’ at all, it’s almost completely a news site reporting on current events. However, it is impossible to have any insight into the future without an accurate understanding of the present and Antiwar.com provides one of the best daily overviews of global conflict that you are likely to find.

Of course, it wears its political leanings on its sleeve and I often find some of the comments from readers to tend towards the more conspiratorial side of things – but the news it aggregates comes from across all sources of media and the commentary from some of its columnists is refreshing in the attempt to get beyond partisan political standpoints and delve deeper into the issues at hand. There’s not much point thinking about the future if you’re ignoring what’s occurring right now, so make sure to put Antiwar.com on your reading list.

8b. Future Timeline

Okay, sometimes you miss something from a list that really does need to be included. Future Timeline is one such website that I overlooked when first publishing this post yesterday – and since Antiwar.com is not really a futurist website I figured it would be appropriate to rectify this oversight here. The site feels old-school in its design (like many futurist websites, funnily enough) but contains an almost encyclopedic overview of futurist topics and is one of the few sites to attempt to delineate a timeline of progression. If nothing else, it gives some perspective to the futurist field and makes you think about where you would place the different advances being discussed. With a relatively active forum that has built some considerable depth to it over the years, and a good selection of links and regular new updates Future Timeline really does deserve to be on this list – so here it is.

7. Singularity Institute

Originally focusing on the implementation of artificial intelligence, the Singularity Institute has widened its remit in recent years to include many forms of futurist thought that surround the concept of the ‘intelligence explosion’ or Singularity. This is where you have Ray Kurzweil (whose site Kurzweilai.net I’m including within this entry on the list) hanging out with Aubrey de Grey, Peter Thiel with Eliezer Yudkowksy – the Singularity Summit is one of the most discussed events on the futurist calendar each year and for good reason.

Having said this, I’ve always approached it with a slight degree of caution as those attracted to the Singularity Institute do seem to be amongst the more zealous and ideologically alarmist of the futurist community. Which is not to say that there isn’t concern warranted in the direction that humanity is taking, indeed it is the entire focus of this blog, but amongst all of the very deep and thought-provoking research and position papers there’s an underlying ideological conformity that’s worth noting. But as far as the futurist ‘rock stars’ are concerned – most of them can be found relating to this Institute in some shape or form, and for that reason alone its a central hub of activity. Speaking of hubs, I’m going to throw in Singularity Hub into this entry as well – a very good collection of futurist news and links updated daily.

6. Science Daily

For obvious reasons, a lot of futurist thought revolves around scientific advancements in technology and medicine; and one of the best sites for announcements and articles from reputable sources is Science Daily. It’s packed full of content and although the site layout is a bit dense (and also relies on the old ‘hide the Google ads’ technique) there’s enough here to keep you learning for a long time. It tends towards a pure science focus, and as such there is less exploration of the implications of the advancements being discussed, but that doesn’t stop it from being a great resource to keep on top of the latest scientific advancements from around the world.

5. World Future Society

The Futurist magazine The World Future Society is the preeminent organisation for global futurist thought, and The Futurist magazine gives on a bi-monthly basis the most comprehensive and authentic overview of the field available. The fact that a large proportion of current-issue content is available online for free is commendable, and although they don’t have the vast free resources of others that will be mentioned below there are for-pay archives available running back through to the 1960s (and at $0.10 an article I think we can call that fair enough).

Beyond the well-known magazine, they hold annual conferences and have an extensive membership network with meetings around the world. Unfortunately the website itself is falling behind the times a bit in terms of layout and design, and thus I can’t give the WFS the top spot on this list…but as far as futurist organisations are concerned, they certainly deserve it!

4. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies (IEET)

The IEET was amongst the first futurist sites that I really started visiting on a regular basis, and you can see its obvious correlation to the focus of Future Conscience. The site provides a great news overview that includes multiple posts a day, and papers from their peer-reviewed Journal of Evolution and Technology are available free to download.

The site does suffer like the World Future Society from having a slightly archaic look – but it gets the job done and it gives you the information and inspiration that we crave. Co-founded by Nick Bostrom, who is the Director of the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute – another organisation well worth your time so I’m going to include them in this entry on the list.

3. r/futurology and #future

Reddit Futurology Reddit – the ‘front page of the internet’. Given the recent eye-opening news about Digg’s spectacular fall from grace, and the not negligable role that the humble narwhal that is Reddit played in that demise, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that one of my top recommendations is a user-controlled news aggregator along with Twitter, everybody’s favourite little microblogger that could.

With just under 11,000 subscribers on r/futurology, there’s a lot of people posting a lot of news, images, thought and generally inspiring things that you will want to see. Right now on the front page of r/futurology there are night-vision contact lenses, a graph showing the implementation of Moore’s Law, predictions for 2030, transhumanism, space travel, solar energy…the list is endless and changes every few hours. Beyond the external content, it’s the level of discussion the community generates on an endless diversity of topics that will keep you thinking and deserves such a high place.

Twitter hashtags such as #future (and to a lesser, but more focused extent #futurist) should also be one of your primary sources when it comes to getting an overview of the futurist zeitgeist at any particular moment. By following the people who post to #future and other similar hashtags you will receive a constant stream of futurist updates on topics you didn’t even know you were interested in.

2. RAND Corporation

One of the largest and most influential think tanks in the world, the RAND Corporation is controversial because of its close ties to the US government and armed forces. Although what their research is used for and by whom should be very carefully considered, the fact remains that the papers that come out of RAND are necessary reading for any potential futurist. Areas of focus cover all major socio-economic sectors and concerns, and the vast majority of it is filled with useful data, forward looking and projection based.

With over 10,000 research papers available online, papers that inform much of the foreign policy of the world’s largest superpower, the RAND Corporation influences our general perception of the future more than most people realise. If you’re looking for data on almost anything relevant to the futurist field, there’s probably a paper on this site that you can refer to. Whether you should or not, I’ll leave that up to you…

1. Wired – Blogs

It’s kind of an obvious choice, but I have to give the top spot to Wired and in particular to their collection of blogs that explore on a daily basis our path towards the future. If I was pressed to choose, I would immediately say that Threat Level is my favourite blog not only on the Wired site but on the web as a whole. There are a lot of bloggers out there (and I include myself in this) who are okay at what we do and happy to comment on the world around us, but few have such detailed a grasp and depth of understanding on their chosen topic as the writers over at Wired.

All of their blogs are excellent and each one on its own deserves to be on this list, but Threat Level just picks up on such a fascinating aspect of the modern era (online privacy, crime and security) that I find almost every post there to be a revelation. The team of writers over at Wired are at the forefront of accessible reporting on often unfathomable cultural paradigm shifts, and their implicit focus on liberty and an overall concern for the collective wellbeing of society can never be applauded enough.

I’ve missed something, but what is it? Let us all know by leaving a comment below! And for all you futurist bloggers out there that feel left out, you haven’t been forgotten. Stay tuned…

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