There are many names in the world of futurist thought past and present, but one that is often overlooked despite his influential impact is the High Priest of the psychedelic movement: Dr. Timothy Leary.

Leary lived a varied life filled with scientific research; psychedelic therapy; metaphysical exploration; social commentary and government oppression. During his time spent inside prison, he developed a futurist philosophy summed up in the phrase S.M.I2.L.E. – Space Migration, Increased Intelligence, Life Extension. These ideas developed out of Leary’s life-long interest in the evolution of humanity away from our primal roots, but they also had another influence which Leary termed the ‘Starseed Transmission’.

The Starseed Transmissions were a series of experiments in group telepathy that occurred during Leary’s time in prison. These experiments allegedly culminated in a communication with some kind of extra-terrestrial intelligence; that through a rather cryptic series of messages set forth the futurist programme that Leary would adhere to quite stringently for the latter part of his life. Whatever happened during that time, it certainly had a profound impact on the man and his ideas of future progress.

Now that you understand a little bit of the background behind Dr. Timothy Leary’s futurist philosophy, let’s take a look at the state of affairs for each of these three categories. Leary was quite optimistic whilst alive that many of these things, particularly life extension, would be very well progressed within his own lifetime. Unfortunately, this didn’t come about quite as quickly as he may have imagined; however we’re certainly beginning to approach a period of human history where the SMI2LE formula will be become increasingly relevant. So, let’s have a quick look at where each of the three sectors stand:

Space Migration:

Since Leary’s time, the understanding and exploration of space and the structure of the universe has certainly progressed a great deal.  However, when it comes to human space migration not too much has really happened.  Although that certainly isn’t to say that we’re not progressing in that direction.

We now have a developing space tourism industry which is bringing private corporate money into the arena.  Funding levels for NASA are an obvious indicator to watch when it comes to government initiatives, and at the moment the US seems to be a little undecided on exactly which way they want to go with this.  Obama wants to increase spending, particularly focusing on getting people to the International Space Station; and also continuing to push for an eventual manned mission to Mars.

Despite all of this though, it still looks like real space migration (and particularly anything beyond the surface of our own Moon) is a long way off into the distant future.  Technology for this kind of enterprise requires very long lead-in times, and with current widespread austerity measures being set into place space migration is unfortunately just one of those things that becomes less and less of a priority.  The first and most obvious sign to watch for progress in this area is the first manned mission to Mars – which current indications state will begin around 2030 at the earliest.

Increased Intelligence:

This one is an interesting category to try and examine, because it can really cover many different things.  For Leary, this component was needed in order to properly utilise the revolutionary technology and understanding of our role in the universe.  But there are a few different ways of looking at this within a modern context.

To begin with, the advent of the internet and its increasing ubiquity in our knowledge economies could be described as a kind of increase in intelligence.  Particularly with emerging technology such as augmented reality we are now increasingly seeing an information overlay onto the world before us (with some very interesting and even life-saving applications).  Memorising historical facts, and other such rote-learned information, is also becoming increasingly irrelevant as the speed at which we can access this information increases to almost instantaneous levels.

Of course, this way of looking at things somewhat ignores our ability to really do anything innovative with that information – which is really more in line with what Leary was talking about.  In many ways, increased intelligence was seen by Leary as quite a literal outcome of neurological pharmaceuticals which would increase the capabilities of our brains.  In other ways, it was seen in a more metaphysical sense – our ability to use our intelligence to understand the ‘reality tunnels’ that we exist within; to develop a meta-intelligence that was able to examine itself and act upon and develop our own personalities accordingly.

In this latter sense, it’s difficult to really know whether or not we are progressing along the lines that Leary envisaged.  Certainly, it seems that people today are just as likely to be caught up in their own cultural and emotional paradigms as ever before; although having said that, there is now a vastly increased body of literature that explains this fact and the many and varied processes available to try and overcome it.  Whether or not as individuals we are becoming more ‘intelligent’ is difficult to ascertain – but we seem to at least be developing a growing sub-group of thoughtful people who are forging ahead for the rest of us.

Life Extension:

The final part of Leary’s S.M.I2.L.E. trilogy is probably the one that we are nearest to seeing some true progress on.  This category is really one in two parts, the first is elimination of early death and the second is extension of maximum life span.  When it comes to the first part of this life extension equation we are really progressing in leaps and bounds – even when just examining things in the last 30 – 40 years since Leary was first discussing his futurist ideas.  Areas such as treatment of cancer are really seeing some remarkable advancements in just the last few years.

In the developed world, the average life expectancy is now roughly 80 years; and has increased by about 10% even just in the last 20 or 30 years.  A large factor which will be influencing our ability to extend our maximum life span, as well as eliminate early death, has been the cataloguing of our genetic code.  Unsurprisingly, the revelation of the DNA code was central to Leary’s concepts of SMI2LE and was to play an absolutely central role to everything else he discussed that surrounded it.

Longevity research is something that always seems a lot more promising than it delivers on.  For decades longevity scientists have been optimistically pushing the ‘only a few more years’ line, but unfortunately the reality seems to be further away than that.  However, even by conservative estimates, by the middle of the 21st century (i.e. about 40 – 50 years from now) we should have made a great deal of headway in figuring out just how our DNA impacts the creation of increasingly fragile and damaged cell structures.  Once this has been figured out, then we move ever closer to truly extending our maximum life span.

In the meantime, of course, our ability to eliminate early death is increasing by orders of magnitude every 5 – 10 years – and so it is not out of the realms of possibility to say that the vast majority of those currently under the age of 20 in the developed world will live past 100 years of age (apart from any accidental or non-natural deaths).

Ginsberg, Leary and Lilly - a conversation worth sitting in on!

Overall, what Leary provided was quite an interesting synopsis of three major categories that futurist thought should be focused upon.  It was his belief that these three categories were the ones required for the human race to truly inherent its biological and cosmic destiny.  To truly say that we have ‘progressed’.

No matter what we feel about Leary’s personal philosophy/theology/science, it is difficult to deny the fact that space migration, increased intelligence, and life extension would play a pivotal role in any kind of utopian futurist scenario that we might be able to come up with.

Just how far away we are from truly achieving these things is very difficult to guess – and the only thing we can really say is that Leary’s thoughts on timeframe were off by quite a large degree (relatively speaking). Maybe the forthcoming information spike (or Singularity) that most data is pointing towards will truly bring about these things at an incredibly rapid pace, possibly even well before we can truly comprehend just how much they will change humanity as a whole.

If we can learn anything from Leary’s work in futurism, it is that we must not be complacent in presuming that we will just miraculously end up in some kind of sci-fi utopia.  We must be explicitly aware of where we are going, and most importantly why we are going there, if we ever hope to live up to our potential.

I thought that with today’s post we could get back to basics and I would present you with a set of futurist predictions for us to all mull over and discuss.  So, without further ado, here are seven predictions for the future brought to you by the futurist blog Future Conscience (wow, that’s a lot of future for one sentence!).

1) Intolerance around the globe will increase dramatically

Let’s get some of the negative ones out of the way first.  If it wasn’t clear already, the recent events of the past few months have highlighted an exponential return to intolerant thinking and sentiment around the globe.

Clear examples in the Western world have come from the USA in the form of staunch opposition to the building of a mosque near the former site of the World Trade Centre (not to mention Terry Jones and his threats of Koran burning, representing the Christian lunatic fringe); and also from France with their recent shockingly nationalistic deportation of the entire French Roma ethnic community.  In addition to this, we are seeing growing intolerance from the more radicalised aspects of the global Islamic community – with a large and growing population clearly on the look-out for any excuse to rise up against Western regimes.

Of course, such intolerance is almost par for the course when it comes to humanity and the way we treat each other.   However, the last five years in particular have seen a clear and growing sense of nationalistic/religious intolerance – with many groups and individuals looking for reasons to be upset and others looking to cause offense.  The problem is compounded by the fact that it is these viewpoints that the media like to push over more tolerant and accepting ones – sensationalism sells.

Over the next decade, I strongly believe that such intolerance will increase until the point where we see a number of dramatic and almost cataclysmic events occur fuelled entirely by the fires of social intolerance of those different to us.

2) Afghanistan will return to an Islamist government

If the goal of invading Afghanistan was to instigate regime change and ensure that the Islamist Taliban were removed from power, then it looks increasingly likely that the war will be lost by the USA and their coalition.  Many would argue that this was never entirely the point of the war, however one prediction I am confident in making is that within the next decade or two Afghanistan will return to having an Islamist government.

This is not necessarily a negative thing – and we must always be vigilant that we do not merely presume that Islamist equals “wrong” – however it will have made the entire process of invading in the first place a catastrophic irrelevancy. Guided by tribal elements within its own borders and the thoroughly dug-in Taliban, coupled with the ‘turn a blind eye to it’ hard-line influence from elements of the Pakistani government – Afghanistan is almost assured to return to an Islamist regime.

3) Leisure Society due to automation of manufacturing process

This prediction has a rather longer viewpoint than many of those I am making in this post, however I wanted to include it as I strongly believe it is something that will revolutionise the way many of us see the place of work and our role in society.  It’s difficult to truly predict how long this one will take to come about, but it is linked closely to the exponentially increasing technological development in areas of manufacturing, construction and other forms of manual labour.  We had this dream in the 1950s, where by now we should all be living Jetsons-type lifestyles – but it is now that I think we will begin to see such a change coming about.

We are on a process of complete automation for all production sectors, and with the advent of intelligent systems capable of making important decisions in abnormal situations the requirements for human interaction in many of these sectors will become redundant.  This will lead to an explosive growth in the number of people existing on some form of welfare, and it will be necessary to reformulate our vision of society based upon this radical paradigm shift.

At the moment, the primary locus of value in the developed world is centred upon employment and work.  In particular, for the majority of people work means taking part in the production or service industries.  I have no doubt in my mind that the technology will rapidly become available to make human intervention in production redundant – and even within the service industry to a somewhat lesser, but still highly impacting degree.

Just how long this takes, and how governments and corporations will deal with employee resistance initially, is very difficult to ascertain.  But look out for it, because before too long many of us are going to be desperate for things to fill our time with – quite a nice little outcome really, as long as social boredom and individual perceptions of worth are dealt with accordingly.

4) Gaming will become the central entertainment form

Over the last few years, the videogame industry has toppled Hollywood and the music business for complete dominance over our consumer spending.  This trend isn’t going anywhere, and indeed I predict that the role of gaming within mainstream culture will increase further –to the point where it becomes our central paradigm for entertainment and creative expression.

Beyond merely a capitalist perspective, there is reasoning behind this opinion, and it revolves predominately around two things: structure and agency (a little pun there for the anthropologists!).

Agency, in this context, refers directly to the central component that makes gaming what it is.  Our ability to control this medium, with an ever increasing degree of autonomy and options, is one of the very basic prerequisites for something to be considered a videogame.  We cannot control a movie at the cinema – it is an inherently passive experience.  Likewise with music, apart from a very few experiments in providing remix technology, what you purchase is a passive experience.  Videogames are on the verge of an absolute revolution in agency, providing more choice for the player than ever before, and this is one of the primary reasons why they will supplant music and film as our central form of entertainment in the future.

The second reason is structure; the content-medium that you are provided when you purchase a videogame is more flexible than anything else we have currently available.  The fact is: a videogame can contain film, music, fashion, art, social interaction, sport and basically any other form of entertainment experience you can consider.  Gaming is, at its very core, an all-inclusive medium that is only currently limited by technology and the subsequent creative roadblocks.  For many, the ultimate expression of videogaming will be the creation of a life simulator which is identical and indistinguishable from reality (apart from, importantly, many of the permanent consequences of existing within space and time).  Consider the implications of that goal for a moment, along with the fact that this end-point is lacking in the fantasy available through our imaginations – and then try and tell me that videogames won’t become the central component of our leisure time in the future.  We’ll need a new name for them at any rate, any suggestions?

5) Privacy will be all but abolished – and we’ll love it

We’re at a turning point in social media, the crossroads in which we need to choose as consumers whether we want our data to remain private and owned by us; or whether we want to hand over many aspects of our private lives in order to receive back greater functionality and utility.

The way it’s going at the moment – whether through choice, indifference or ignorance – is that our online data will increasingly become publicly accessible and available to those who wish to use it.  For many of us concerned with the implications of this retreat from privacy, this seems like a dystopian future.  However, for the vast majority of people it’s not of a concern – and the payoff far outweighs the instances in which such data will be used maliciously or cause distress.

Location services are the next big step towards an open approach to personal privacy, along with the sharing of your entertainment and lifestyle interests and choices through platforms such as Apple’s forthcoming Ping and the increasingly ubiquitous Facebook Like.  People within your peer group already know more about these quantifiable aspects of your life than at any other point in human history – and soon, I predict, so will the rest of society as we become increasingly open to the idea of a non-private social existence.  The long-term implications of such a shift are staggering…

6) Food alternatives will be pushed – and will fail

This one’s a bit more out of left-field, but within the next two decades there will be a big push for alternatives to the very food that we eat.  Whether it be because of time, convenience, health or any other reason these technologies are already being developed and have also been depicted in many a science-fiction tale of old.

The two major forms will be dietary bars and inhaled flavour.  The first is a concept we’re all quite familiar with and quite similar in concept to vitamin supplements, but at some stage it will also be pushed as a way to redefine the role that eating has in your life (just consider all the hours saved, the obesity figures plummeting with perfect portion control, the health implications of perfected nutrition).

In a similar fashion, inhalers are currently being developed that hope to provide you with all the satisfaction of taste without the caloric intake of eating.  Focused at the moment primarily on substances such as chocolate and coffee, these inhalers are just around the corner and proponents expect them to be a hit particularly amongst women watching their waistlines.

Whilst the concept of the inhaler will certainly be commercially viable (after all, many people I know already find great enjoyment from even a non-edible cupcake/chocolate flavoured lip gloss), I don’t think it will bring about the revolution that many think it will.  I certainly don’t think that a complete dietary substitute would be able to overcome many thousands upon thousands of years of deep-seated social development revolving around the consumption of food.  What would a family dinner consist of if merely a pill? How about that first date?  Or the business lunch?  There are far too many social conventions revolving around food and the pleasure we gain from its texture, scent, flavour to easily topple this central part of our lives.

It’s not going to stop people trying, but I think the best they might do is find a substitute for chocolate cravings…

7) Drug policy will be softened in North America and Europe

For the final prediction let’s head into a slightly more controversial area, and one that many people in mainstream society may not see coming.  It is my belief, and it is increasingly backed up by policy, that government legislation in North America and Europe surrounding illicit substances will continue to soften and trend towards decriminalisation and even possibly legalisation (with a few notable exceptions – of course – such as the United Kingdom).

Many parts of Europe are increasingly heading towards decriminalisation for users, a particular example being the Czech Republic which at the beginning of 2010 decriminalised the personal use of all illicit substances.  Whilst there is some discussion of tightening regulation in well-known areas such as Holland, this doesn’t seem to be amounting to much real reversal of policy.  In particular we will see a wide-spread acceptance of cannabis as a decriminalised substance, and even in the hard-lined ‘War on Drugs’ bastion that is the USA it is becoming quite clear that movement towards commercially available marijuana is gaining momentum.  The referendum in California in a few months will give quite a yardstick to go by (and with a 50/50 split in the polls it’s going to be a close one), but even without it many people don’t realise that a decriminalisation bill has already been passed and is just waiting for the Terminator’s approval.

What will be the reasoning behind this shift?  Well, I think primarily it will come from a recognition that the ‘War on Drugs’ hasn’t been terribly successful in curbing drug-use at all.  In fact, all it has really resulted in is a rapidly increasing prison population and incredibly high profits for the criminal underworld.  Not to mention the financial cost.

Politically, I think one of the major factors will be the need to free up legal resources and budgets; not to mention the taxation gold-mine that awaits upon legalisation of any kind.  Scientifically, we are already seeing a push from experts against the common misconceptions of the dangers of many illegal drugs when compared to legally available ones.  The scientific hypocrisy of the situation cannot be ignored, and science is no longer available as a partner in hard-line approaches as was made clear with the recent ACMD debacle in the United Kingdom.  Socially, people are already doing these drugs in large numbers.  If we are talking about the so-called ‘soft’ illicit substances such as cannabis the rates of usage are sky-high and cross all sections of society.

It will require a great deal of investment in education and addiction treatment facilities, but the signs are pointing towards an end to the hard-line ‘War on Drugs’ in many parts around the globe, and in the USA and Europe in particular – for better or for worse.  It will be interesting to see the resulting change in society and I think it is impossible to gauge whether this will be a more positive or negative path to take until it is explored.

Conclusion

There are so many possible predictions that one can make when it comes to looking forwards into the future of humanity.  The fascinating thing about existing in today’s global society is that it is actually quite difficult to truly imagine the vast array of possibilities that are just beyond the horizon.  With technological, political, social and environmental changes happening at an ever increasing rate the future really is there to be made.

This is exactly why Future Conscience was created in the first place, and why I feel it is vitally important that everybody – at all levels of society – engage in discussion on the direction/s we are heading in.  Without large-scale, grassroots input the future is going to be owned solely by the governments and corporations that are already looking ten, twenty, fifty years into the future.  We must set our sights on this distant horizon, even if not for our own personal benefit but for those who will follow us in the years to come.

What do you think of these predictions? Do you have any others you would like to share?

First of all, let me apologise for the small delay in posting – I’ve been rather ill recently and that has reflected in my ability to think too clearly or sit in front of a computer screen for too long! As such, today I wanted to bring back something I did here on Future Conscience for a little while: which is to introduce a new Site of the Week. This week – Big Think.

Big Think is the kind of website that has only really been able to exist recently – being as dependent on high quality video streaming as it is. As such, it’s a kind of interesting hybrid between the traditional TV interview format and the evolution of blogging into the video-blog arena. What makes the site special, and deserving of our Site of the Week post, is its focus on seeking out true experts and leaders in various fields to impart their knowledge in a frank and revealing manner.

It’s the kind of site that I really can’t say too much more about: other than to say that once you spend some time there you will understand why I hold it in such high regard. Between the countless video interviews, and the many wonderful blogs that are hosted on the site, I can guarantee that you will find something that catches your interest.

The truly wonderful thing about Big Think, is that quite often what grabs your attention will be something that you had no real knowledge of beforehand.  The topics are so varied, and fascinating, that you find yourself exploring new concepts and intellectual spheres that you might otherwise not have come into contact with.  It really is a wonderful educational resource that will widen your intellectual and personal horizons.

There is literally hundreds of hours of interview footage there for you to take in; with speakers ranging from a Jesuit priest to a former editor of High Times and everything in between. Philosophers; film producers; TV personalities; journalists; economists; doctors; scientists and experts of all descriptions can be found imparting their wisdom in a very sleek and minimalist format.

The videos are all of substantial length – many of them running over an hour – and don’t over simplify what can, at times, be some very detailed and complex topics. The interviews are also rather unique, or at least relatively uncommon, in that they leave you just with the expert and the topic.  There is no interviewer muddying the waters with a particular journalistic style.  This format, for me, is part of the great appeal of the site and it’s worth having a look just for that reason alone.

By stripping away any sense of an interviewer/interviewee dynamic you really feel like you are having a conversation with these people. They speak directly to camera – for the most part – and this really immerses you in the topics being discussed. It truly is riveting stuff and I can only say you won’t regret spending some time over at Big Think!

Check it out and then let us know in the comments to this post what your favourite interview/topic was so that others can take a look…for what it’s worth, one of my favourite interviews on the site is with Robert McKee, screen-writing guru, that has some wonderful ideas and anecdotes for anybody aspiring to be a writer.