Tag Archives: augmented reality

Will the Future be Augmented or Virtual?

Samsung Gear VR (image by Maurizio Pesce, Flickr, CC)The Virtual and Augmented Reality hype trains continue to grow, promising a greatly enhanced version of daily reality that will be in our hands (and on our heads) within the next year or two.  Samsung’s launch of the Gear VR is the first truly viable commercial platform, coming out of a close partnership with Oculus VR; whilst Microsoft has put its contender well and truly into the ring with the HoloLens (making sense of that massive Minecraft buy out!).

Facebook bought out Oculus VR,  Google has put down half a billion dollars for Magic Leap, and Steam will soon be following with announcements of their own in these areas (Update: Details of the partnership with HTC are now available!).  It’s quite clear that many of the top-tier players in the technology industry see these platforms as the future.  There are two primary approaches to this new field – virtual and augmented – so which one will come out on top?

To begin with, it’s obvious that the true answer is that both have immense potential to be successful as mainstream commercial products.  The future will most likely prove to be a combination of an augmented experience of daily activities, with access to the virtual creation of new worlds and non-locational forms of interaction.  Indeed, it’s likely that some devices will be able to do both.  The two formats, though, ultimately serve different purposes and certainly have quite different strengths and weaknesses.  It is also worth considering that in the minds of the general consumer these platforms will be conflated in the short term (say the next five to ten years) until there is enough differentiation for them to be seen as two separate mediums.  So it’s still worth considering which format might come out ahead and most effectively forge new consumer and industry spaces.

Augmented reality is probably the path that is already most visible to the public eye.  It’s a technology that we’ve had in limited form on our smartphones for a number of years, and the spectacle (pun intended!) of Google Glass shows that there was a lot of interest in the technology.  Albeit an interest that quickly turned to condemnation, to the extent that ‘glassholes’ became a widely recognised term.  However, a large part of the problem with Google Glass seemed to be linked to its ‘always on’ ethos and the recent displays of HoloLens from Microsoft (and its form/design) are going for a much more purpose-driven approach that will sidestep legitimate privacy concerns.  Placing the interactive space within the real world also overcomes many of the concerns about social isolation, and is arguably an easier format to promote co-operative experiences with, but it does limit the creative potential and will lead developers down particular avenues.

AR is also something that is more likely to appeal to corporate interests as it readily allows traditional-yet-novel modes of advertising to be mapped onto the user experience.  This is both a blessing and a curse, of course, but the viability of new platforms undeniably depends a great deal on the amount of investment into content that can be gathered.  Augmented reality does therefore seem to have an advantage from the outset, primarily because of its familiarity and cultural immediacy.  It’s a format that is well rehearsed in films and entertainment, and the user experience is a more natural progression from what we are used to that should promote a quick take-up of the technology if it can find an appropriate distributive outlet – and Microsoft has a better chance than almost anybody of being able to do that.

HoloLens Minecraft (image by Microsoft Sweden, Flickr, CC)We have to keep in mind, thought, that it’s also something that has recently failed spectacularly with Google Glass.  Overcoming that stigma might prove difficult for a fickle consumer base.  ‘Always on’ functionality will likely be a long way off, but as an item that promotes new forms of entertainment, communication and information access there is a lot of potential to readily create new market space.

Virtual reality, on the other hand, is still very much in the eyes of the public a highly technical format.  Samsung’s Gear VR, and smartphone integration in general, is a clever way to overcome this barrier and create a more accessible medium – but for the foreseeable future it seems that VR is going to be an enthusiasts product.  Despite this, the impact that it can make on a new user is undeniably stronger than AR can muster.  The ability to be transported into situations that are wholly unlike our day-to-day existence is what brings virtual worlds to the forefront of people’s curiosity and it is this holodeck-like capability that is the medium’s biggest advantage.  The reactions that I’ve seen demoing the Oculus Rift DK2 for friends and family really brings this point home – people are blown away by the experience.  That is, if they don’t happen to get motion sick during it.

It’s a relatively unspoken Achilles heel of the technology in its current form, but a significant proportion of users suffer from the effects of motion sickness and until this can be overcome (which the industry is pretty confident it can be) then the format won’t be ready for full consumer release.  It’s too risky a proposition, as the predatory media will pounce on the issue and reports of high return rates won’t make for a good commercial narrative.  When combined with the need for high-end computer specs to properly operate a VR system, along with the challenge of adequate control schemes, it’s a killer combination that I think will delay the widespread release of commercial VR (including Oculus CV1) for at least the next two years.  It will be worth the wait though, because unlike its augmented cousin Virtual Reality really does open us up to completely new modes of creative expression – allowing the formation of a deep connection to a vast range of different experiences and identities.

If I had to call it, then I would say that Augmented Reality will be the first to hit the ground running – primarily because it is easier to relate to, and more immediately mainstream in its application (AR + Minecraft = mountains of money).  Virtual Reality will really find traction on the back of this success, with a second wave of widespread acceptance as the platforms become more self-reliant (i.e. not dependent on a high-end PC) and the industry is able to crack the sickness/control issues that will plague initial phases.

Ultimately, though, I think we can be confident that both technologies are going to be successful (given enough time) and are going to change the way we interact with the world around us and the boundaries of our imaginative expression.  At this point it’s worth rejoicing in the fact that, unlike versions of these technologies that have come in decades past, we’ve finally reached the point where these platforms are viable and primed for success.  As I’ve said many times on this blog recently – the future is now!

The Best of Future Conscience 2009 – 2012

The Best of Future Conscience 2009 – 2012

Rose and Calla lily (image by CresySusy, Flickr, CC)It’s quite strange to think that Future Conscience has now been running for three years. Over 150,000 words through almost 200 posts, there’s a lot here that visitors to the site just won’t come across unless it happens to be through a specific search term. To recognise three years of writing the blog I thought I would highlight some of my favourite posts, the ones that I would hope everybody who visits would read (and share!) and that highlight the tone and purpose of the blog the best.

I’ve left out some of the most recent ones, which are easily found, and also those in the most popular posts list to the right (that Top 10 Futurist Films post has seen so many views I can’t see anything toppling it). Some posts that I’d like to include here I haven’t to keep the length manageable, so there’s still some hidden gems for you to find if you hunt through the archives (or the random links that pop up on the sidebar).

If there’s only one post that you share with your friends and followers – please do make it this one. Celebrate our third anniversary and help spread the word with these: the best of Future Conscience 2009 – 2012!

Society 3.0 – Where all of us have a voice (2009)

One of the first posts on the blog.  The early posts show a far less nuanced writing style, and I think also are a bit too full of naivety. But with this one I think the groundwork was laid for what the blog was to become. Starting originally as a daily blog highlighting futurist news with an ethical slant, it was here that I started to show the social commentary and personal philosophy that would become the norm. For that reason alone it’s an important one to have on this list…even if I cringe every time I read posts from around this time.

Augmented Reality: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (2009/10)

Augmented Reality concept (image by Electric Images, Flickr, CC)I like this series of posts because it takes a look at one particular technology – augmented reality – and approaches it from multiple angles. All technology can be used in both positive and negative ways, and you should really do a post like this for every futurist projection. It’s also a post that I neglected to conclude for quite some time, so the final part shows quite a different writing style to the earlier two.

Ethical Blogging Series (2009)

One of the early topics covered was this ongoing series of posts on ethical blogging. What does it mean, how can you do it, why would you want to? Blogging is one of those mediums where people don’t really consider much how to respect intellectual property, their readership and the ethics of monetisation, and the role that a good ethical foundation can play not only in the topics that you write about but in the practical structure of the blog and how it’s put together.

Tweetivism: Social Justice or Internet Lynch Mob? (2009)

Continuing with the themes of social commentary and longer posts, I’m quite proud of this post because it highlights an issue which has become increasingly important in the years following. It’s nice to feel somewhat ahead of the curve, and it wasn’t until a year or so later that editorials started cropping up regularly in the mainstream media on this very topic.  By the way – how ugly are Google Ads? Bleh…glad I stopped using those.

[Review] Radio Free Albemuth: Into the Mind of Philip K Dick (2010)

Radio Free Albemuth: Interview with Writer/Director John Alan Simon (2012)

Philip K DickIf I had to choose a favourite post, most of the time I’m going to choose my initial review of Radio Free Albemuth. Primarily because of the absolutely surreal experience that I had on the day (given in full detail in the post), but also because it opened up a dialogue with the film’s director and producer which a year later meant that I was able to meet them in person to discuss the movie and also score an interview for the blog. Being such a huge fan of Philip K Dick, I felt priviliged and honoured to be part of the roll-out of this film in whatever small way. Here’s hoping it gets a wider release very soon!

The Rabbi & The Golem: A Parable of Synthetic Life (2010)

Musings Along the Way: 40 Spiritual Aphorisms (2010)

The parable is the only piece of fiction on the blog, I really enjoyed writing it and I do feel it’s important for people to know that the blog comes from a place of personal contemplation and spiritual growth. The aphorisms were my attempt at conveying information in a symbolic manner, and the style is one that is being seen less and less these days. They give a direct view into the core of my psyche at the time of writing, which makes them the most personal post by far and is also why I present them without comment.

The Shifting Paradigms of Alternate Reality Gaming (2010)

Another one of my favourite posts, mainly because of the paranoid noir-like world that it portrays. Alternate reality gaming is something that seemed poised to take off in a big way, and although to a certain extent it has simmered down recently I still think it’s an entertainment medium that has a lot to offer in merging gaming, social activity and the ‘real’ world into a wonderful cocktail that enables personal enjoyment, inspiration and growth. But there were aspects of the scene that were showing some very worrying tendencies, and the ability for this medium to be abused for violent or manipulative ends should not be overlooked.

10 Sectors to Watch for the Next Decade (2009)

7 Random Predictions for the Future (2010)

5 Predictions for the Next 5 Years (2012)

Timeline: The Future of Videogames (2012)

Futurists are supposed to make predictions, it’s part of the genre and it forces us to put our necks on the line.  Here are some prediction posts I’ve made over the last three years. In many ways I think I’m not a terribly imaginative futurist, but these attempts at least show that I’m willing to try! At the very least, if you make enough predictions then some of them are going to be right…

Your Life: The Videogame (2011)

Not everything on Future Conscience has to be so serious and sombre, and so I’m picking this post to highlight one of the more light-hearted explorations of future technology. The gamification of life is a prediction that I stand by strongly, and is also one that I’m quite looking forward to. We’ve only just begun to develop ways to incorporate our technology, our sense of entertainment and our daily lives; and it’s a sector that is going to see rapid growth over the next decade with some completely unexpected results.

Millionize Your Lashes: The Impossible Dream of Cosmetics (2011)

Possibly the post that comes closest to being a pure rant, but this is another one that I’m very pleased with and also feel a certain degree of pride over. The disingenuous world of advertising is an issue that really upsets my sense of autonomy, as it is founded on a notion of manipulation, manufacture of desire and an underlying message that chips away at self-confidence. I’m proud of this post not because of its content, per se, but because it comes up so highly when searching for the product mentioned.

It still makes me chuckle to think that at some point there was likely a marketing meeting at one of the world’s largest cosmetics companies (L’Oreal) with people getting pissed off that this post was ranking so highly on Google searches for their latest product. Don’t fuck with the blogosphere, you agents of the corporatocracy. We bite.

Hack the Planet! Lulzsec, Anonymous and the Call for Accountability (2011)

Anonymous There’s something about the world of hackers, cyberpunks and online activists that is so intriguing that it has always been a topic of great interest to me. Of course the reality rarely matches the myth, but I thought it was important to try and clear up some misconceptions that were going around in the press at the time whilst also highlighting why people of this persuasion – whether you agree with their methods or not – have a very important role to play in the 21st century.

This post doesn’t even cover half the story, as time progressed we learned of hidden arrests and FBI sting operations that only served to make this techno-thriller that much more compelling.

London/UK Riots: Are We Limiting Our Understanding of Violence? (2011)

2011 was when I really began to hit my writing stride, and my response to the London riots written on the day they had concluded is one of my favourite pieces of work. I was shocked to see how quickly many of my previously liberal friends and peers were to call for martial law, swift punishment and harsh sentencing – and so this was my attempt to highlight why we must try and see beyond the surface and rise above our primal response mechanisms. We need to learn how to read the language of our cities and societies more effectively, particularly when they are screaming at us.

Beyond Cute Robots: Towards a New Concept of Sentience (2011)

iCub - Future ConsciencePart of what I love about writing the blog is that it encourages me to get out there and go to exhibitions or other events that are relevant and interesting.  This post sees me playing around with ideas surrounding the anthropomorphic nature of our view of sentience, and I enjoy it because of its philosophical depth. Like many of the posts on the site, it’s basically a stream-of-consciousness piece…which means that it trades off a certain degree of structure and academic riguour in an attempt to access those areas of our minds that rest just on the edge of what we can grasp hold of.

We are the 99%! You are the Revolution! (2011)

The Social Psychology of Occupy (2012)

These two posts bookend my experiences with the Occupy London movement, and in many ways show a transition from pure idealism to the pragmatics of social transformation. The first is a call to action, the second a sincere attempt to examine why the movement all but fell apart.  Broad-based resistance to dominant and damaging social (and, particularly, commercial and economic) paradigms is important, and I hope to see it continue in other forms that can learn from the drawbacks of the Occupy movement and how it operated in practice.  As an aside: if there’s one thing that I will take away from experiences with Occupy, it’s that there is no such thing as a large-scale horizontal movement. No matter how many times you say otherwise.  At least, not yet…

So there you have it…some of the best posts that this blog has to offer. I hope you’ve enjoyed seeing how the blog has developed over the years (some of my earlier writing is so cringe!) and I look forward to writing more for you as we continue to look towards the future and ask ourselves the question: What do we want to be?

Timeline: The Future of Videogames

What is the future of videogames? As one of the most important entertainment mediums of the 21st century how will they evolve over the coming decades?Continue Reading

Your Life: The Videogame?

I wanted to look at something that we will likely see in the near future of videogames: the conversion of everyday activity into a gaming context. We’ve already seen a few examples of this take place and it is a form of gaming that has yet to really emerge but one that will take off very quickly once the mainstream crowds are drawn into the addictive lure of turning everyday mundane actions into status-based achievements.Continue Reading

Augmented Reality: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly (Part Three: The Ugly)

Over a year ago I started a series entitled Augmented Reality: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly. The Good and The Bad were covered in due course, however the third part – The Ugly – never saw the light of day…until now.Continue Reading

The Shifting Paradigms of Alternate Reality Gaming

The phone rings late one evening. You answer it to hear the voice of a woman in distress: ‘I can’t keep this up any longer, they’re getting to close to the truth!’. She hangs up suddenly, but not before leaving you with a cryptic clue – a password to some online network that she had managed to get a hold of. Your next move, should you choose to take it, is to log onto that network and download the encrypted data hidden within.Continue Reading